Fargo-After hearing about the potential shortage of alcohol, wine and beer this holiday season, this holiday may be a miserable Christmas for some consumers.

Thanks to COVID-the constant "gifts"-you may have to bravely face the terrible holiday gifts of your aunt Violet, including headless eggs, "invalid" cider, and Tom and daughter who are 12 and under Jerrys.

This thought-provoking trend is related to a perfect storm — or perhaps a perfect drought —. These factors include the increasing consumption of stressed people and the same supply chain bottlenecks that affect dozens of other industries.

Rod Thompson, general manager of The Bottle Shoppe and Trax Liquors in Moorhead, Dilworth, Minnesota, said the shortage has become more serious in the past three to four months. “We started to notice that due to lack of products, every shipment we received was very short,” he said. "Each of our suppliers will say,'If I have it, I will sell it. This is my livelihood."

Nader Mossavi, Food and Beverage Director at Rosewild in Fargo Jasper Hotel, said they felt the pressure in particular last month. Not only did he see that the 750 ml bottle is only 375 ml in size, but he also found that some orders may take 30 to 40 days to be delivered.

"I want our consumers to know that this is not us," said Mossavi, who had previously worked in Las Vegas for 21 years and was responsible for overseeing the food and beverage business of various casinos. "I want to sell you the $300 bottle of wine...I hope people come out and have fun. But I hope people understand that there is not only a shortage of labor, but also a shortage of consumer goods."

On the other hand, there is no need to sing "I dream of a dry Christmas" yet. Some liquor stores have become more strategic and creative in purchasing the liquor customers want. Manufacturers and suppliers have turned to adapt to the shortage of containers, and local restaurants and bars are exploring new ways to provide customers with special holiday drinks.

People may just need to practice patience. The experts we interviewed insisted that there was no need to panic buying enough Pinot Noir to fill the three storage rooms. This should not be Big Charmin Squeeze or Great Lysol Wipe-out. Dustin Mitzel, CEO of Happy Harry's Bottle Shop, which runs five liquor stores in Fargo and Grand Forks, said there will still be many festive atmospheres to choose from.

"I didn't get any signs from the suppliers that this year is different from last year," he said, showing half-and-half optimism about alcohol supply.

However, customers need to be prepared for price increases for their favorite brands, because almost every aspect of bringing wassail into the hands of consumers has become more complicated and expensive.

Dan Sobolik, vice president of sales at Republic National Distributing, the country's second-largest spirits and wine distributor, said he has become accustomed to seeing alcohol prices rise by about $1 every two to three years. Recently, the annual increase is close to 2 to 3 US dollars.

Thompson estimates that beer prices have risen by 4% to 10%, while high-end liquor prices have risen by 10% to 12%.

"Week after week, we see price increases in cases," Nader Mossavi said. "I can see that many companies, especially small companies, will have to push this price range to consumers."

So what's the problem? Local alcohol retailers, distributors and manufacturers cited many factors:

The surge in consumer consumption caused by COVID: Despite the closure of bars and restaurants, household consumption has skyrocketed as consumers keep boxed wine and other low-priced wines in their pantry to survive the pandemic.

Shortages of glass, aluminum, plastic and cardboard-all of which are caused by factory shutdowns, transportation problems and shortages of raw materials. Sobolik said that although Alcoa, the world's eighth largest aluminum producer, has built three new factories since the beginning of the COVID-19, manufacturers are still struggling to meet demand.

Labor and transportation issues: "There is a labor shortage everywhere," Sobolik said, "both in wineries and breweries, or in transportation." Sobolik said that a series of complex problems hindered the usual transportation and Distribution routes, from alternate ports for containers to lack of truck drivers to deliver products to retailers. Fuel costs are also rising. Sobolik says some freight companies compensate for this by increasing their rates by 30% to 35%.

Another factor is our reliance on "Just in Time" (JIT) manufacturing, which was first introduced by Toyota, the mastermind of industrial efficiency.

The "just-in-time" model is based on parts being delivered to the factory as soon as they are needed, thereby minimizing the need to store them in large inventories.

It turns out that just-in-time manufacturing is so effective in making companies more flexible while reducing costs that every industry from fashion to pharmaceuticals has adopted them.

But the chaos of the past 20 months shows that “just in time” can sometimes become “too late”. According to an article in the New York Times on alcohol supply issues, especially when a series of factors cause major disruptions.

"It's a bit like an out-of-control supply chain," Willy C. Shih, an international trade expert at Harvard Business School, told the New York Times. "In the race for the lowest cost, I focused my risk. We came to a logical conclusion about all of this."

Mitzel said that Happy Harry's does not rely on a "just in time" model. "We have been very aggressive in buying quantities, so if someone suddenly needs five boxes of product x, we will have five boxes of product x in stock."

But smaller stores do not always have the ability or space to buy large amounts of inventory. They feel the pressure. Joel Kath, CEO of Fargo Proof Artisan Distillers, said: "With just-in-time manufacturing and inventory, it won't be so good when something goes wrong."

When Kath first launched Proof in Fargo in 2014, he remembered how easy it was to order bottles.

He will place an order with a Chinese manufacturer; it will arrive in seven to ten days. After about 45 days, he will receive the invoice.

Now, with the global glass shortage, this process has become more difficult. If he wants to order bottles, he must pay in advance. "When the pallet arrived, we had to prepay to book the pallet," Kath said.

Even after the advance payment, Kath has to wait, sometimes several months before receiving the bottle.

"What we see is that small producers are the most affected," Kath said, "because we don't have a lot of purchasing power. Many times, we have to get anything left over from large orders, and manufacturers can help us Anything you look for."

Kath explained why glass has become so difficult to purchase. During the epidemic, while overseas glass manufacturers closed their doors one after another, consumers continued to snap up glass stocks in overseas warehouses.

Moreover, “when the (glass) factories restarted, they were not operating at full capacity at all,” he added. "And they are still trying to catch up. When you combine it with the dilemma of freight and cargo transportation, it's a bit confusing."

Kath said that while domestic glass manufacturers have stepped in to help fill this gap, "the U.S. consumption far exceeds its production."

He added that the shortage caused a 50% increase in bottle prices.

Mossavi said that another factor is the shortage of liquid oxygen, which is necessary to make glass, but hospitals are using liquid oxygen to treat COVID patients at unprecedented levels.

Based on current supply and labor issues, the supply of different types of alcohol appears to be increasing or decreasing. For a while, peach gin was as hard to find as fresh peaches in North Dakota in January. In the early days of COVID, hard soda became scarce due to the shortage of aluminum. Cognac and Jack Daniels were also MIAs at different times. Across the country, winemakers are hampered by factors ranging from inclement weather to bottle shortages.

"It's almost comprehensive," Thompson said. "It depends on which week it is. The vendors will come in and they will be very discouraged. They will say,'We don't have a captain (Morgan) this week, they will shake their heads."

Thompson noted that some manufacturers have responded to the shortage by changing the container material to plastic or aluminum, using smaller bottles, or changing the 24-pack to 18-pack.

However, Thompson added that plastic is not an option for a $300 bourbon.

Most of our sources agree that in the coming months, top spirits will be harder to find. This is partly because these spirits take longer to make and age, but also because of their unique, difficult-to-manufacture glass containers.

"This is not the true spirit in the bottle, but the bottle itself cannot be produced."-Nader Mossavi, Director of Food and Beverage at Fargo Jasper Hotel.

"This is not the true spirit in the bottle, but the bottle itself cannot be produced."-Nader Mossavi, Director of Food and Beverage at Fargo Jasper Hotel.

Companies that specialize in these fine wines will definitely take notice. Rosewild employees use premium brands to make everything from bulk cocktails to beverages developed specifically for seasonal menus.

"We have a $14 cocktail for a reason," Mosavi said. "We don't want to use cheaper products and try to resell them."

The shortage has escalated to Mossavi and employees have recently had to meet with alcohol suppliers to let them know they need to make adjustments. He told them that if a supplier who traditionally provided them with a certain brand cannot obtain it, they may have to temporarily switch to another supplier to get close to the brand.

"One of the great things about Fargo is that we can have candid conversations about this," he said. "Our suppliers are very frank about delivery time."

Even so, the shortage has caused Mossavi and Rosewild chef Austin Covert to revise their menu several times to ensure they have the right cocktail or wine to pair with. "We are working every week to see if we have enough stuff," Mosavi said.

It depends on who you ask. Some people say that the situation may get better in April or May next year. Others think this may take several years.

Mitzel made a mistake in optimism: "We don't have a crystal ball, and we don't know exactly how many price increases will be internalized in 2022," Mitzel said. "Hopefully, over time, raw materials will be more readily available, and the production of glass will increase. Hopefully some of them will cause (prices) to fall in 2022."

The Happy Harry's CEO believes that the liquor industry has responded to its supply and demand issues with considerable flexibility and creativity. "I think there is no reason for anyone to panic buying and hoarding more than normal consumption," he said. "If your favorite thing happens to be out for a few days, it will most likely be back in a short time. If not, during this holiday, you can try and enjoy many things and share them with friends and family."

Thompson advises consumers to buy in advance if they are worried that their favorite wine is out of stock. "Most of the time, we are lucky," he said. "If you are patient, it will come."